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Hurricane Irma Power Outage Forecasts

Current power outage forecasts for the Continental U.S. from researchers:

  • As the storm progresses, our model will likely show additional outages to the north as the track and intensity forecast for this area becomes available.
  • This page contains the power outage forecasts for Hurricane Irma (2017) from the Hurricane Power Outage model developed by Seth Guikema (University of Michigan), Steven Quiring (Ohio State University) and Brent McRoberts (Texas A & M Univeristy).
  • This model takes as input track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and estiamtes the fraction of the popualtion without power at the census tract level.
  • Seth Guikema , University of Michigan Brent McRoberts , Texas A&M University Jordan Pino , The Ohio State University Steven Quiring , The Ohio State University Sara Shashaani , University of Michigan Stephen Shield , The Ohio State University Chengwei Zahi , University of MichiganA note for reporters, utilities, and government agencies wishing to ask questions about the model.
  • Thir contact information is:Seth Guikema: (734)369-2469, sguikema@umich.eduSteven Quiring: (614)247-8222, quiring.10@osu.eduThe best way to reach us is to email both Seth and Steven, and one of us will get back to you as soon as we can.The information and graphics on this web page cannot be reproduced without explicit consent of either Seth Guikema or Steven Quiring.

The most recent power outage forecast for Hurricane Irma is given below. This is current as of the time and date on the figure. The time is given in UTC. Subtract 4 hours to get back to
the time in the eastern U.S. time zone. Note that our predictions are originally made in terms of fraction of the population without power and then converted to customer meters without
power using an approximate conversion. Please go to nhc.noaa.gov for details on the storm and the currently active storm warnings and advisories.

@bryanwx: Current power outage forecasts for the Continental U.S. from researchers:

The most recent power outage forecast for Hurricane Irma is given below. This is current as of the time and date on the figure. The time is given in UTC. Subtract 4 hours to get back to the time in the eastern U.S. time zone. Note that our predictions are originally made in terms of fraction of the population without power and then converted to customer meters without power using an approximate conversion. Please go to nhc.noaa.gov for details on the storm and the currently active storm warnings and advisories.

NOTE: The early forecasts for this storm will show outages only for southern portion of the storm track. There is not yet an official track forecast along the northern portion of the storm. As the storm progresses, our model will likely show additional outages to the north as the track and intensity forecast for this area becomes available.

This page contains the power outage forecasts for Hurricane Irma (2017) from the Hurricane Power Outage model developed by Seth Guikema (University of Michigan), Steven Quiring (Ohio State University) and Brent McRoberts (Texas A & M Univeristy). These are experimenal results, not a fully operational forecasting model. This model takes as input track and intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and estiamtes the fraction of the popualtion without power at the census tract level. This model is a statistical outage forecasting model based on wind speed estimates, population density, soil moisture levels, drought indices, and information about trees in each census tract. For more information on an earlier version of this model, you can find the journal paper from IEEE Access here. The model used for the predictions below builds from this previous model and is available here . If you have trouble accessing these papers and would like a copy, please contact Seth Guikema or Steven Quiring. This research was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. National Science Foundation, and a private utility.

The main members of the reseach team are below, with web links to their web pages for more information.

Seth Guikema, University of Michigan

Brent McRoberts, Texas A&M University

Jordan Pino, The Ohio State University

Steven Quiring, The Ohio State University

Sara Shashaani, University of Michigan

Stephen Shield, The Ohio State University

Chengwei Zahi, University of Michigan

A note for reporters, utilities, and government agencies wishing to ask questions about the model. You can reach either Seth Guikema or Steven Quiring by phone or email with questions. Thir contact information is:

Seth Guikema: (734)369-2469, sguikema@umich.edu

Steven Quiring: (614)247-8222, quiring.10@osu.edu

The best way to reach us is to email both Seth and Steven, and one of us will get back to you as soon as we can. These outage estimates are provided for informational purposes only and are the product of a research project at the collaborating institutions. The information is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. The investigators and their universities do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained on this website. The information and graphics on this web page cannot be reproduced without explicit consent of either Seth Guikema or Steven Quiring.

Hurricane Irma Power Outage Forecasts